Acta Limnologica Brasiliensia
https://actalb.org/article/doi/10.1590/S2179-975X8324
Acta Limnologica Brasiliensia
Original Article

Asymmetric dispersal in freshwater species distribution models varies depending on the spatial pattern of fish species

A dispersão assimétrica em modelos de distribuição de espécies de água doce varia dependendo do padrão espacial das espécies de peixes

Micael Rosa Parreira; João Carlos Nabout

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S2179-975X8324 Acta Limnol. Bras. (Online), vol.37, e16, 2025
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Abstract

Aim: We estimated the relative contribution of environmental and dispersal predictors in distribution models of freshwater species with different distribution ranges (29 fish species). Specifically, we tested whether model performances vary depending on the fish species' range and distribution across sub-basins and whether the relationship with those predictors is stronger depending on the type of variables (environmental or asymmetrical dispersal) used for modeling.

Methods: The study area used for modeling was the Tocantins-Araguaia River basin, encompassing the entire hydrographic network. We applied six niche modeling methods to project the geographic distributions of 29 fish species within the Tocantins-Araguaia River basin, using environmental and asymmetrical dispersal predictors.

Results: Generally, the models built using dispersal predictors generated more accurate predictions than those using environmental variables. However, although we found no significant difference in the accuracy among models built using different variables, their accuracy metrics were correlated with the species range and distribution across sub-basins. Also, more restricted species (i.e., lower range and distribution limited to one sub-basin) showed a greater difference in model accuracy between models built using dispersal and environmental predictors, with more accurate models being generated for restricted species when modelled using dispersal-related predictors only.

Conclusions: the use of asymmetric dispersal predictors in SDM, besides generating accurate models, avoids/reduces model overpredictions to geographically close and climatically suitable areas, especially for restricted species, by predicting the species’ distribution based on their dispersal routes through the actual directional gradient of the basin’s hydrographic network.

Keywords

 asymmetric eigenvector maps; Tocantins; Araguaia; range size

Resumo

Objetivo: Estimamos a contribuição relativa de preditores ambientais e de dispersão em modelos de distribuição de espécies de água doce com diferentes amplitudes de distribuição (um total de 29 espécies de peixes). Especificamente, testamos se o desempenho dos modelos varia em função da amplitude de distribuição das espécies de peixes e da distribuição delas entre as sub-bacias, e se essa relação com os preditores é mais forte considerando os tipos de variáveis (ambientais ou de dispersão assimétrica) usadas para modelagem.

Métodos: A área de estudo utilizada para a modelagem foi a bacia do Rio Tocantins-Araguaia, abrangendo toda a rede hidrográfica. Aplicamos seis métodos de modelagem de nicho para projetar as distribuições geográficas de 29 espécies de peixes na bacia do Rio Tocantins-Araguaia, utilizando preditores ambientais e de dispersão assimétrica.

Resultados: Em geral, os modelos construídos usando preditores de dispersão geraram previsões mais precisas do que aqueles que usaram variáveis ambientais. No entanto, embora não tenhamos encontrado uma diferença significativa na precisão entre os modelos construídos com diferentes variáveis, as métricas de precisão estavam correlacionadas com a amplitude e a distribuição das espécies entre as sub-bacias. Além disso, espécies mais restritas (ou seja, com menor amplitude e distribuição limitada a uma sub-bacia) apresentaram uma maior diferença na precisão dos modelos entre aqueles construídos com preditores de dispersão e preditores ambientais, sendo que modelos mais precisos foram gerados para espécies restritas quando modelados usando apenas preditores relacionados à dispersão.

Conclusões: O uso de preditores de dispersão assimétrica em modelos de distribuição de espécies (SDM), além de gerar modelos precisos, evita/reduz superestimativas de distribuição em áreas geograficamente próximas e climaticamente adequadas, especialmente para espécies restritas, ao prever a distribuição das espécies com base em suas rotas de dispersão através do gradiente direcional real da rede hidrográfica da bacia.

Palavras-chave

mapas de autovetores assimétricos; Tocantins; Araguaia; amplitude de distribuição

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Submitted date:
09/20/2024

Accepted date:
06/20/2024

Publication date:
09/19/2025

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