Acta Limnologica Brasiliensia
https://actalb.org/article/doi/10.1590/S2179-975X5125
Acta Limnologica Brasiliensia
Original Article

Potential impacts of sea-level rise on fish communities in coastal lakes and lagoons of the Tramandaí River Hydrographic System, southern Brazil

Potencial impacto da elevação do nível do mar sobre comunidades de peixes de lagoas e lagunas costeiras do Sistema Hidrográfico do Rio Tramandaí, sul do Brasil

Taís de Fátima Ramos Guimarães; Fernando Gertum Becker; Ana Cristina Petry; Sandra Maria Hartz

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S2179-975X5125 Acta Limnol. Bras. (Online), vol.38, e7, 2026
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Abstract

Climate changes are predicted to strongly affect aquatic communities and consequences in coastal lakes and lagoons might be worsened by the tendency of salinization due to sea-level rise.

Aim: This study aims to evaluate potential fish community changes caused by a potential increase in salinity in a system formed by 41 interconnected lakes/lagoons.

Methods: We modeled the occurrence and abundance of 12 fish species under two scenarios of salinity change via marine water intrusion through the estuary of the Tramandaí river, in south Brazil, based on their contribution to β diversity. This was determined by the difference between the average number of recorded individuals and the salinity condition using ANOVA and Tukey's test, followed by generalized linear models with the estuarine connection projected for two future climate scenarios. In addition, we evaluated the effects of increased salinity on endemic species and the consequences of this environmental change on their endangered status.

Results: According to our results, salinity increases will lead to reductions in the distribution of freshwater fish species, which would become restricted to fewer lakes/lagoons (a 10 to 60% reduction in habitat area within the study region). These reductions in geographic distributions are even more concerning for the endemic species.

Conclusions: Our results demonstrate the need to assess vulnerability to climate change and that these criteria should be more clearly incorporated into species assessment protocols, such as those of the IUCN.

Keywords

 coastal ecosystems; endangered species; global change; salinity

Resumo

Mudanças climáticas devem afetar fortemente as comunidades aquáticas. Para as lagoas costeiras isso pode ser agravado pela tendência à salinização pela elevação do nível do mar.

Objetivo: Este estudo objetiva avaliar alterações nas comunidades de peixes provocadas por potencial aumento na salinidade em um sistema formado por 41 lagos e lagoas interconectadas.

Métodos: Nós modelamos a ocorrência e abundância de 12 espécies de peixes em dois cenários de alteração da salinidade, via intrusão de água marinha pelo estuário do rio Tramandaí, no sul do Brasil, com base em sua contribuição para a diversidade beta. Esta foi determinada pela diferença entre o número médio de indivíduos registados e a condição de salinidade, utilizando ANOVA e o teste de Tukey, seguidos de modelos lineares generalizados com a ligação estuarina projetada para dois cenários climáticos futuros. Adicionalmente, avaliamos os efeitos do aumento da salinidade nas espécies endémicas e as consequências desta alteração ambiental no seu estado de ameaça.

Resultados: De acordo com nossos resultados, aumentos de salinidade levarão à redução na abundância de espécies de água doce que tendem a se limitar a um número reduzido de lagoas (redução de 10 a 60% na área de habitat dentro da região estudada). Essas reduções na distribuição geográfica são ainda mais preocupantes para as espécies endêmicas.

Conclusões: Nossos resultados demonstram a necessidade de avaliar a vulnerabilidade às mudanças climáticas e que esses critérios devem ser incorporados de forma mais clara aos protocolos de avaliação de espécies, como os da IUCN.

Palavras-chave

ecossistemas costeiros; espécies ameaçadas; mudanças globais; salinidade

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Submitted date:
06/25/2025

Accepted date:
02/23/2026

Publication date:
03/27/2026

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