Acta Limnologica Brasiliensia
https://actalb.org/article/doi/10.1590/S2179-975X2723
Acta Limnologica Brasiliensia
Original Article

Incorporating symmetrical and asymmetrical dispersal into Ecological Niche Models in freshwater environments

Incorporando dispersão simétrica e assimétrica em Modelos de Nicho Ecológico em ambientes de água doce

Micael Rosa Parreira; Geiziane Tessarolo; João Carlos Nabout

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Abstract

Aim: Ecological niche models (ENMs) are based mainly on environmental (mostly climatic) and occurrence data to predict the potential distribution of species. In freshwater habitats, species dispersal is not restricted only by physical barriers but also by the directional movement of the hydrographic network, which can be considered through spatial predictors. Here, we aim to evaluate the effect of including asymmetrical and symmetrical spatial predictors in the potential geographic distribution of a freshwater fish in the Tocantins-Araguaia River basin, Brazil.

Methods: For this, we built models with seven variable sets representing the climatic and spatial models, as well as their interactions.

Results: We found that the overall best models (higher evaluation and lower variation among modeling methods) are those built using AEM (asymmetrical dispersal [i.e., dispersal along the river flow path]), either alone or in combination with environmental variables (ENV). Moreover, the inclusion of asymmetrical dispersal variables, taking into account dispersal limitations of species, decreased the overprediction to climatically suitable but disconnected areas through rivers.

Conclusions: Therefore, future ENM studies, especially those using species groups with directional dispersal, should consider the inclusion of asymmetrical spatial predictors to increase the model’s accuracy and ecological reality.

Keywords

Asymmetric Eigenvector Maps, Ecological Niche Models, directional dispersal, Principal Coordinates of Neighbour Matrices, spatial modeling

Resumo

Objetivo: Os modelos de nicho ecológico (ENMs) são baseados principalmente em dados ambientais (principalmente climáticos) e de ocorrência para prever a distribuição potencial das espécies. Em habitats de água doce, a dispersão das espécies não é restrita apenas por barreiras físicas, mas também pelo movimento direcional da rede hidrográfica, o qual pode ser considerado por meio de preditores espaciais. Neste estudo, nosso objetivo é avaliar o efeito da inclusão de preditores espaciais assimétricos e simétricos na distribuição geográfica potencial de um peixe de água doce na bacia do rio Tocantins-Araguaia, Brasil.

Métodos: Para isso, construímos modelos com sete conjuntos de variáveis representando os modelos climáticos e espaciais, bem como suas interações.

Resultados: Descobrimos que os melhores modelos em geral (maior avaliação e menor variação entre os métodos de modelagem) são aqueles construídos usando AEM (dispersão assimétrica [ou seja, dispersão ao longo do fluxo do rio]), seja sozinho ou em combinação com variáveis ambientais (ENV). Além disso, a inclusão de variáveis de dispersão assimétrica, levando em consideração as limitações de dispersão das espécies, diminuiu a superpredição de áreas climaticamente adequadas, mas desconectadas por rios.

Conclusões: Portanto, futuros estudos de ENM, especialmente aqueles que envolvem grupos de espécies com dispersão direcional, devem considerar a inclusão de preditores espaciais assimétricos para aumentar a precisão do modelo e sua aplicabilidade ecológica.
 

Palavras-chave

Mapas Assimétricos de Autovalores, Modelos de Nicho Ecológico, dispersão direcional, Coordenadas Principais de Matrizes de Vizinhos, modelagem espacial

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Submitted date:
04/03/2023

Accepted date:
06/20/2023

Publication date:
07/25/2023

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